Muted Global Steel Demand Through 2026, Strong Recovery Expected Led by India

Pic Credit: Pexel

New Delhi, Apr 16 (BNP): Global steel demand is expected to remain subdued in the near term, with meaningful recovery likely only in 2027, according to a recent report by Centrum citing estimates from the World Steel Association.

The report projects global steel demand growth of just 0.3% in 2026, reflecting continued weakness in key markets. China, the world’s largest steel consumer, is expected to remain the primary drag on demand, with consumption forecast to decline by 1.5% year-on-year in calendar year 2026 and remain flat in 2027.

In contrast, India is emerging as a major growth driver. The report highlights that India’s steel demand is expected to grow by 7.4% in 2026 and accelerate further to 9.2% in 2027, positioning the country as a key contributor to the global demand rebound.

Despite muted demand conditions, steel prices have risen across major markets. Input costs have shown mixed trends, with iron ore and non-coking coal prices moving higher, while coking coal prices have softened compared to the previous month.

Among non-ferrous metals, aluminium continues to outperform, with prices remaining firm. Meanwhile, other metals such as copper, zinc, and nickel have witnessed marginal declines, reflecting uneven trends in the broader commodities market.

The report underscores that while near-term challenges persist due to weak global demand, particularly from China, India’s strong growth outlook offers a positive signal for the steel sector’s recovery in the coming years.